FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: lppipress@luskin.ucla.edu
UCLA Study Finds Latino Republican Growth in South Texas Does Not Necessarily Reflect Weaker Ties to Latino Identity
Interviews in South Texas and analysis of electoral trends from 2012 to 2024 show Latino Republicans maintain strong ties to their identity and immigrant roots while viewing the GOP as more closely aligned with their longstanding values.
LOS ANGELES (September 24, 2026) — A new issue expert brief from the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute (LPPI) finds that recent Republican gains among Latino voters are primarily among Latinos who already identify as politically and socially conservative, not the Latino electorate as a whole.
The research analyzes data from the American National Election Study from 2012 to 2024, with 85 in-depth interviews conducted between 2020 and 2025 in the southern Texas counties of Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, Willacy, and Zapata.
The LPPI study identifies four findings:
- Republican identification increased among Latino conservatives. In the national analysis, Republican identification among this group rose from approximately 12% in 2012 to more than 60% in 2016 and remained high through 2024. Latino liberals remained overwhelmingly Democratic.
- Latino identity and immigrant ties remained meaningful. Many interview participants expressed pride in their ethnic background and described personal or family immigration histories as central to their identities.
- Participants described continuity in their values. Many viewed Republican affiliation as reflecting beliefs rooted in religion, family, personal responsibility, public safety, and national belonging.
- Participants interpreted identity in different political terms. Some connected Latino identity to conservative values; others emphasized that ethnicity should not determine political preferences. Immigration discussions often distinguish between support for immigrants and support for enforcement.
“National conversations about Latino voters often describe Republican gains as evidence that the entire electorate is moving to the right, but that framing misses the growing political differences within Latino communities,” said Efrén Pérez, professor of political science and psychology at UCLA and co-author. “Our findings show that conservative Latinos are increasingly aligning their party identification with their ideology, while Latino liberals remain overwhelmingly Democratic.”
The differences extend across several policy areas, including immigration, abortion, gun policy, same-sex marriage, and transgender rights. The findings suggest that Republican growth reflects broader ideological and partisan sorting within the Latino electorate rather than a response to a single issue.
“Many of the people we interviewed did not understand their Republican affiliation as a rejection of who they are,” said Rodolfo Solís, a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at UCLA and co-author. “They continued to express pride in their Latino identity and connections to immigrant experiences. What changed was how they interpreted the relationship between that identity, their values, and their political choices.”
The five Texas counties the researchers examined in the study are overwhelmingly Latino, remain closely connected to immigrant communities and cross-border family histories, and have long histories of supporting Democratic candidates. Each has also moved substantially toward Republican presidential candidates in recent elections.
The authors caution that the interviews are not nationally representative and should not be used to estimate how widely these views are held. Instead, they provide insight into how Latino Republicans in a politically changing region explain their identities, values, and partisan alignment.
Read the study here.
About the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute
The UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute is a non-partisan research institute that seeks to inform, engage, and empower Latinos through innovative research and policy analysis. LPPI aims to promote equitable and inclusive policies that address the needs of the Latino community and advance social justice. latino.ucla.edu.
