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Policy Report Democracy & Voting Rights

Opportunities and Challenges Facing California with the 2021 California Recall

Posted → Jul 16th, 2021

This data assesses the growth of California’s Latino, Asian, and Black voters ahead of the state’s 2021 Recall and the 2022 midterm elections.

Pattern

Overview:

The 2021 recall in California is an opportunity to build lasting relationships with the state’s non-white electorate. Based on data compiled, UCLA LPPI estimates that since the last California recall election there have been substantial increases in the amount of Latino and Asian voters in the state while the white voting population has remained largely unchanged. The data indicates that a failure to build a strategy targeting growing Latino and Asian American voters is done at a campaign’s peril; mobilizing voters in an off-cycle election will grow engagement for elections to come.

Key Findings:

  1. Since the last California recall election, there has been nearly a 126% increase of Latino voters and 94% increase for Asian American voters. During the past 20 years, the white voting population in California was largely unchanged. California now has the largest number of Latino and Asian American voters in the country.
  2. Together, Asian Americans and Latinos have twice as many under 18 residents as white Californians.
  3. Despite being 45% of all eligible voters, whites are estimated to be 57% of all voters during the 2021 Recall election.
  4. Black, Asian American, and Latino voters are projected to grow their shares of eligible voters between 2002 and 2022, while the share of white eligible voters is estimated to decrease.
  5. Over the last two decades, Latino and Asian American voters are projected to account for the largest share of new eligible voters in California.
  6. Compared to 2002, the number of Eligible Voters in California is estimated to increase 36% by 2022. Latino eligible voters are projected to more than double, while the number of white voters are expected to decrease by 2%.

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