On June 5, 2018 California voters head to the polls to elect candidates in races for all eight statewide constitutional offices, Congress, and down the ballot. LPPI Policy Experts Dr. Matt A. Barreto, Sonja Diaz, and a team of policy fellows assess election returns in real-time to identify: 1) Latino Vote Choice in all eight statewide constitutional office races, the United States Senate race, and a sub-set of contested House of Representatives races, and 2) Latino Voter Turnout, with an emphasis on comparing participation in June 2018 to June 2014. The 2018 California Primary Election is an important indicator for estimating Latino voter participation and candidate support in the November 6, 2018 General Election, which will define control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the executive leadership for the State.

RESEARCH & ANALYSIS

Click on the image below to view LPPI’s reports

LPPI researchers evaluated the efficacy of AltaMed’s 2018 California June Primary Election voter engagement strategy by comparing voter turnout from June 2014 to June 2018 and analyzing the number of ballots cast in the program area compared to the number of ballots cast in similar precincts outside of the program area. Click here for the full analysis.

MEDIA COVERAGE

2018 Primary Election Media Coverage

The Mercury News, Did Trump spur Latinos to California’s primary polls? (June 11, 2018): “Matt A. Barreto, political science professor at UCLA, said there were encouraging signs for the Latino primary vote in Los Angeles. An analysis by the Latino Policy and Politics Institute at UCLA showed the Latino vote increased more than any other demographic in Los Angeles County from June 2014 to June 2018.”

Sacramento Bee, California Influencers: What did we learn from the June primary election, and why? (June 11, 2018): “According to election analysis conducted by the Latino Policy & Politics Initiative at UCLA, the Latino vote played an important role in the June 2018 primary. In Orange County, ballots cast in majority-Latino precincts were up over 2014 numbers by as much as a 245% increase – without all the 2018 votes recorded yet.”

The Washington Post, Mixed results on Tuesday for California’s Latino candidates and voters (June 6, 2018): “Barreto said that Orange County’s precinct-level returns show a high Latino turnout, and that those voters played a potentially decisive role in helping Democrats secure spots for the general election in three key congressional districts. Those districts have been held for years by Republicans, including two who declined to run this year.”

San Francisco Chronicle, Latino turnout, if not candidates, surged in California primary (June 6, 2018): “The early signs on Latino turnout is that it is way above the 2014 level,” said Matt Barreto.

KNX “In-Depth,” The Latino Vote (June 6, 2018): “We do in fact believe Latinos made a difference…in Orange County we see surges, surges, upwards of 10% to 245% of ballots cast over June 2014.” Sonja Diaz, UCLA.

KPCC “Airtalk,” Latinx Turnout in California Primaries (June 5, 2018): “One of the things you’ve been talking about is that race in California 39 that’s very close.… Orange County is actually one of the places that’s already providing precinct by precinct data. That’s really good for us because we can go a little bit deeper than just the county overall,” said UCLA’s Matt Barreto. [Audio download] (Approx. 01:10 mark)

New York Times, How Latino Voting Power Will Count in the California Primary (June 4, 2018): “Latinos have faced voter intimidation in the state for generations. In the Central Valley, for example, farm owners would threaten to fire workers if their names showed up on voter rolls, according to Matt Barreto.”

The Washington Post, California’s Race for Governor has become a Referendum on Resistance (June 3, 2018):“It’s always harder to get back in once you’ve been out,” said Matt Barreto, a political science and Chicano studies professor at UCLA.”

Sacramento Bee, The Influencer Series (June 3, 2018): Featured Dr. Matt Barreto’s quote “The single biggest challenge facing California is that of inclusion and opportunity to ensure that everyone has an equal opportunity to be included in the California Dream, to have access to education, a fair wage and a chance to own their own home.”

San Francisco Chronicle, Antonio Villaraigosa’s chance to be California governor hinges on Latino vote (June 2, 2018): “The polls may be undercounting Villaraigosa’s support among Latinos, said Matt Barreto, a professor of political science at UCLA.”

Los Angeles Times, Why these California Republicans keep winning in Democratic-leaning districts (May 22, 2018): “Across the Central Valley, Latino voters get fewer calls, door knocks and mail from campaigns that don’t believe they’ll turn out on election night, said Matt Barreto.”

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